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Mainz vs Paderborn

Sat 29 Aug 2026, 13:30 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Mainz win: 53.9%

Draw: 22.9%

Paderborn win: 23.2%

Predicted: Mainz

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 53.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.06

More corners: Mainz (60.0% home / 40.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Mainz

Yes

Probability Mainz wins or draws: 71.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Mainz Clearest lean of the available outcomes (54% vs next-best 23%). (54.0% model probability) Medium

Corners Mainz (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Mainz win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.