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Alaves vs Getafe

Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:30 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Alaves win: 40.0%

Draw: 38.2%

Getafe win: 21.8%

Predicted: Alaves

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.8%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 36.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.13

More corners: Alaves (54.8% home / 45.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Getafe

Yes

Probability Getafe wins or draws: 60.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Under 2.5 (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Getafe win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.