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Ipswich vs Sunderland

Sat 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ipswich win: 27.5%

Draw: 28.0%

Sunderland win: 44.6%

Predicted: Sunderland

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 49.8%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 48.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.39

More corners: Sunderland (38.8% home / 61.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sunderland

Yes

Probability Sunderland wins or draws: 66.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sunderland Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 28%). (45.0% model probability) Low

Corners Sunderland (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sunderland win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.