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Newcastle vs Liverpool

Sun 23 Aug 2026, 15:30 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Newcastle win: 28.8%

Draw: 23.9%

Liverpool win: 47.3%

Predicted: Liverpool

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 64.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 68.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.91

More corners: Liverpool (42.0% home / 58.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Liverpool

Yes

Probability Liverpool wins or draws: 73.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Liverpool Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 29%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (65.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (68.0% model probability) High

Corners Liverpool (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Liverpool win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.